Warner Bros/Universal

UPDATED, 1:16 PM: Disney/Marvels Avengers: Infinity War may end up with $55 million-$57 million after the Mothers Day holiday this weekend, according to matinee grosses that are starting to roll in. Although it is early, the two box office newcomers are not setting their worlds on fire in what appears to be an overall soft Friday.

The Melissa McCarthy comedy Life of the Party from New Line/Warner Bros is on track to gross $4.2M-$4.5M today for a three-day total of $15.5M-$17M. In comparison, McCarthys The Boss grossed $8.1M on its Friday in 2015, and last years Mothers Day comedy Snatched took in $5M.

The Will Packer-Universal thriller Breaking In is chasing about $4M today for a weekend tally of $13M+. One of its comps, No Good Deed, took in $8.8M on its opening day.

All of these grosses are off their estimates by about $3M. Mothers Day Sunday is traditionally a strong moviegoing day and should be for both of the newbie films. Stay tuned.

PREVIOUSLY, 7:43 AM: In this third outing for Melissa McCarthy and her husband Ben Falcone (after Tammy and The Boss), Life of the Party from New Line/Warner Bros. enjoyed some late night laughs to pull in $700K from its Thursday previews. Those screenings began at 7 PM in 2,900 locales and the film runs into 3,656 today. The PG-13 rated comedys marketing materials are all about mothers and their daughters going into this Mothers Day weekend.

Breaking In, the Will Packer, Gabrielle Union PG-13 thriller from Universal, also began its previews last night at 7 PM to grab $615K from its 2,150 locations. It releases into 2,537 theaters today. The film, which is about a mother trying to protect her kids, should also have a stronger than usual Sunday.

Mothers Day Sunday, depending on the film, can be equal to or greater than Saturday in moviegoing. For instance, last year one of Life of the Partys comps Snatched opened to $650K in Thursday night previews and went on to gross $19.5M for the weekend. The comedy took in $5M on its Friday (including its previews), $6.4M on Saturday and then $8M on its Sunday.

Tammy is not the best comp with Life of the Party as Tammy opened on a Tuesday going into the July 4th holiday with $1.3M in late nights and ended the five-day weekend grossing $21.5M; it also opened against Transformers: Age of Extinction. This weekend, Life of the Party opens against the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War which will, not surprisingly, dominate the three-day once again.

The Boss, however, opened two years ago in April with $23.58M over its three-day after a late night showing of $985K and a Friday night of $8.1M (that included the preview) in a total of 3,495 theaters.

Packers previous thriller, No Good Deed starring Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson, took hold of an $8.8M Friday opened to $24.2M at Sony, however, did not have previews for the film. As my colleague Anthony DAlessandro noted in his box office preview, it also opened during an non-competitive time at the September 2014 box office. No Good Deed played in 2,175 theaters, about 400 fewer theaters than Breaking In.

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In terms of social media, lets look at what is happening first with box office monster Avengers: Infinity War. Iron Man star Robert Downey, Jr. is still fueling his social media feeds as a star should. Twitter hashtags for #InfinityWar and @Avengers are on the move again, humming along with of 100K per day (and this has been going on all week) and heading up to 158K as we head into its third weekend for with 6.2M over the month.

Remember, #InfinityWar and related hashtags broke the opening weekend hashtag record with 644K hashtags/tags in a day on April 27th — and over on Youtube where theres the most activity adding over 231M views to both official owned videos and reported /fan videos combined since opening, which is exceptional, according to RelishMix which monitors social activity.

For this weekends new releases, McCarthys new comedy has a good Social Media Universe of 190.2M, comprised of 76.6M Facebook fans, 42.2M FB Views, 31.7M Twitter followers, over 13.4M, YouTube views, and 26.3M Instagram followers. According to RelishMix, overall, Life of the Partys social metrics is well ahead of the typical comedys 115M.

However, Christina Aguilera has over 47M fans/followers of her own, which are not activated. Without her social footprint, Life of the Partys SMU drops to 143M, which still exceeds the standard comedy, but wouldnt it be nice for her to engage?

What has really helped in terms of marketing is that McCarthy and her co-stars, including the former Disney Channel star Debby Ryan, stopped by The Ellen DeGeneres Show for a recent interview and those materials have helped with the campaign. The social media star of this film is Ryan with 20.1M fans and followers and she is actively engaging with clips from The Ellen DeGeneres Show, the trailer and more.

One thing RelishMix noted is that the Ellen show re-posted some of the materials, which doesnt always happen for movie talent who interview on the show.

Also, the films EOR (YouTube viral rate of reposting) is 30:1, again ahead of the comedy average of 15:1. Warner Bros posted only two official clips, which is definitely part of why the earned/owned is also high. Looking at average daily YouTube views, the film is earning 6.1K, almost right on par with the genres 6.2K. Now for Breaking In: The thriller starring Gabrielle Union, has a Social Media Universe of 94.4M comprised of 22.5M FB fans, 37.4M, FB views, 10.9M Twitter followers, 9.6M YouTube views, and 14MK Instagram followers. For key social metrics, Breaking In is scoring well with some, but light on others. For the films SMU of 94.4M, this easily exceeds the typical drama/thrillers reach of 76.6M. And, Breaking In has earned an exceptional 48:1 EOR (earned/owned viral rate), ahead of the standard 24:1.

Original Article

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