Sunday AM Update: Universal is calling Miramax/Blumhouses Halloween at $77.5M after a $27.2M Saturday, making it the second-best opening ever of October behind Sonys Venom ($80.2M). As weve known since Thursday night, Halloween is the best domestic opening ever in the John Carpenter 40-year old franchise, Halloween producer and co-financier Blumhouse beating their 2011 $52.5M start to Paranormal Activity 3, and its wonderful reboot for Miramax under CEO Bill Block and Chairman Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who also co-funded and produced the 11th sequel on screen; their recent highlight being Oscar winner I, Tonya.
Some studios get hyper-sensitive whenever they miss certain lofty B.O. marks that were set during the weekend by the industry, but, man, this opening is nothing for Universal to duck their heads about. Its like saying that a Cody Bellinger home run flew into the stands instead of out of the stadium. October doesnt typically do these types of ticket sales at the box office and for two major openings to occur in the same month, in the same year speaks to the unprecedented nature of the box office, and what studios are doing to heighten the theatrical experience at a time when they continually fear competition from streaming. People still want to go to the movies: ComScore is reporting that October is on its way to a record, counting $634.3M in its first 21 days, +55% over last year and 12% currently ahead of 2014 which repped the October record with $757.1M. Understand that yesterday morning, many studios believed Halloween would do $80M-plus and it just speaks to the front-loaded behavior of horror films. Saturday was -17% from Fridays number (including Thursday previews), a tad steeper than the Saturday -10% which Nun and It posted. No one expected the fall to be this rich sans the standard $100M-plus event opener (probably Aquaman in December), and the current YTD box office is at $9.5 billion per ComScore for the period of Jan. 1-Oct. 21, raging 11% ahead of 2018 which wound up with $11 billion and 6% ahead of 2016 which wound up setting the all-time U.S./Canada theatrical ticket sales record of $11.4B. Halloween drove a weekend that saw $168M in business, 72% ahead of the same frame a year ago.
Resuscitating old horror franchises had become passe at the box office recently, and in the previous post we dive into what was key in bringing Halloween back to life, namely having the original creator Carpenter around as EP, Jamie Lee Curtis reprising her legendary survivor role of Laurie Strodes in a #MeToo times, and fresh oxygen being inhaled into the property by David Gordon Green and Danny McBride.
We hear that Halloween played best in the East and the South, but overall excellent across the board with six out of the top 10 runs coming from the West Coast. A $200M final killing for the movie stateside is definitely within grasp. Updated demos are 53%-47% male-to-female with 72% under 35 years old with the single largest quad being 25-34 at 32%. Overall under 25 turned up at 41% (who says young people dont go to the movies?). Diversity make-up was 47% Caucasian, 23% Hispanic, 17% African American and 13% Asian. There wasnt Imax adding further jumps to Halloween, but the movie had PLF screens and they drove 16% of ticket sales this weekend.
In a statement, producer Jason Blum, who is seeing the best opening ever in U.S./Canada for his Blumhouse label, said, “The reception of fans and critics alike is a huge endorsement of the Blumhouse model. Combining legendary source material, the participation of original creators and a fresh take from talented directors and writers who dont normally do horror films, Halloween brings the franchise back to life in a fresh, relevant and fun way.”
Nasser Al-Khelaifi, Chairman of Miramax and beIN Media Group, beamed, “Universal, Blumhouse and Jamie Lee Curtis have been wonderful partners in bringing Halloween to market. There are very few films that have had the wonderful mixture of old Hollywood and new trends, seen in Halloween, that together create the excitement for audiences. We look forward to many more partnerships”.
Exclaimed domestic distribution boss Jim Orr, “This is an iconic franchise that saw the return of a beloved star, with great writing and filmmaking that is rightfully reflected in the critical and audience reaction, boosted by tremendous marketing and publicity, and released on the best date imaginable. All of this allowed Halloween to become more than just the debut of a sequel this weekend, but rather the weekend event.”
Other studios knew that Halloween was going to own this weekend, so unlike other years they didnt crowd the third weekend in October with a slew of counter-programming junk that wouldnt work. Instead, 20th Century Fox expanded their YA feature adaptation of the Angie Thomas novel The Hate U Give which went from 248 locations to 2,303 earning $7.5M. Not the most spectacular break for a $23M production, but Fox has been aiming to slowly grow buzz on this feature about a teenage girl who witnesses the killing of her friend at the hands of a police officer. Critics scores at 97% RT and exits of an A+ CinemaScore are enormous, with 64% females turning out, 76% under 35 years old being the biggest quad and 29% under 17. The mix was 43% African American, 34% Caucasian, 15% Hispanic, and 8% Asian with the best play being on the East coast and mid-West and top 10 runs coming along the coast or in Chicago. End result is somewhere in the $20M range stateside. With all the great exits, youd expect something better, but its a drama, which is always a challenge, and if theres a great emotional core here, then theres something in the pics promotion that isnt pulling in more crowds. On the Fox Searchlight side, the Melissa McCarthy dramedy Can You Ever Forgive Me? rang up $150K at New Yorks Landmark 57th St, Angelika, Cinema 1, and LAs ArcLight and Landmark for a $30K theater average. Respectable results but the question remains whether critics at 99% RT fresh are enjoying it better than audiences. Well see as it widens.
Among specialty fare, A24s Mid90s from director Jonah Hill saw the third best opening theater average of the year with $62,3K and $249,5K at New Yorks Lincoln SQ, Union SQ and LAs ArcLight Hollywood & Landmark. The latter two bookings had great results thanks to extensive Q&As. New York results were very respectable.
IFCs Paul Dano-directed movie Wild Life posted a $26,4K off New Yorks IFC Center and Lincoln Center and Hollywoods ALH, & Landmark. New York was pumped by Q&As, while Los Angeles results were mediocre. $105,6K three-day here.
Below the top 10 films per studios Sunday estimates:
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WRITETHRU SATURDAY 7:33AM after 12:15AM post: The 11th sequel in a horror franchise, executive produced by the series creator John Carpenter, starring the series original actress (Jamie Lee Curtis) in a female survivalist tale that speaks to todays times seems to be a recipe for box office success.
Weekend estimates for Universal/Miramax/Blumhouses Halloween are coming in at $33.2M for Friday (including a great $7.7M Thursday night) making it the second-best first day for a horror movie after It ($50.4M), on a killing spree to become the second-highest domestic horror opening of all-time at $80.5M (also behind Its $123.4M) and the biggest opening of October, upsetting Venoms $80.2M record from three weekends ago. As weve mentioned, so far the box office trajectory many are using for Halloween is roughly akin to The Nun and It with Thursday previews accounting for 23% of Fridays ticket sales, a Saturday thats down in the low double digits (-10% to -15%) and a Sunday thats down in the 35%-40% range. More amazing? Halloween isnt getting any goosing from Imax which propped the opening weekends for It and Nun.
Also as we already mentioned, its a record weekend for the Carpenter franchise, Blumhouse (their last record debut being Paranormal Activity 3 at $52.5M) and a great launch for the revived Miramax under Bill Block and Nasser Al-Khelaifi.
There was a huge horror reboot craze in the wake of Platinum Dunes/New Lines 2003 Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($28M, $80.5M domestic), the wake of which saw dusty slasher properties in the hands of edgy directors. In that case it was German director Marcus Nispel, and in the case of Halloween its filmmaker David Gordon Green, and Danny McBride as EP/screenwriter, giving the 40-year old universe an auteurish tone combined with McBrides dark sense of humor. More reboots followed in the wake of Texas Chainsaw Massacre, like 2005s Amityville Horror ($23.5M opening, $65.2M domestic), 2009s Friday the 13th ($40.5M opening, $65M domestic), 2010s Nightmare on Elm Street ($32.9M opening, $63M) and even 2007s Halloween ($26.3M, $58.2M) — all of them repping opening records in their franchises. But the craze died out to the point where Paramount pulled the plug on a Friday the 13th movie a few years ago; its Rings last year was DOA with a $13M opening. Meanwhile Weinsteins Amityville: The Awakening skipped a full theatrical play after several release date changes, and went the theatrical/VOD release on Google Play.
Whats the difference here in resuscitating Halloween? Involving the franchises original creator Carpenter, star Curtis as an EP and, yes, Malek Akkad who owned partial rights with the Weinsteins, and whose late father Moustapha Akkad produced the Halloween movies from 1978 to 2002. Such attachments speak to the brands core fans who show up at the theater, and bring their kids and future generations as well. Its a reboot plan not unlike what Universal executed with Jurassic World with that series original director Steven Spielberg still serving as EP and Disney with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and its original stars Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and the late Carrie Fisher. In fact, Disney, maybe you want to reconsider killing off Han Solo and Luke Skywalker? Theres a business nowadays in classic franchises including their original stars; that could help with future Star Wars sequels. Its what Paramount and Skydance are currently doing with Terminator, with Linda Hamilton and Arnold Schwarzenegger both returning at the same time since 1991s Terminator 2 plus series original filmmaker James Cameron in a producing role.
Tonight Halloween gets a B+ CinemaScore, the highest grade for the series since 2002s Halloween: Resurrection which also earned a B+; that was the last time Curtis played Laurie Strode. On ComScore/Screen Engines PostTrak, Halloween is three-and-a-half stars, 75% overall positive with Men 25+ leading the way at 32% followed by F25+ (28%), M25- (31%) and F25- (19%) — the latter who are giving the pic its best scores at 78%. Sixty percent definite recommend with Caucasians repping 47% of all moviegoers, 24% Hispanic, 17% African Americans and 6% Asian. Note these exit polls update throughout the weekend.
Huge attaboy here to Universals domestic distribution boss Jim Orr and international chief Duncan Clark. The third weekend of October is typically a place for distributors to toss a bulk of counterprogramming that often pales (last year there were, crazily, five wide releases at this time, four in 2016, and four in 2015). Historically Universal via former distribution vet Nikki Rocco has long preached the belief that when you got the goods, you can play them anywhere on the calendar. The third weekend of October has also proved to work for scary movies looking to leg into the Halloween holiday, which is what Blumhouse has done previously with the Ouija movies and Paranormal Activity 2, 3 and 4.
RelishMix noticed in regards to the positive buzz on social that “fans are discussing the original, how its plot lines up with this 2018 film — and the many chapters of the series between 1978 and how, 40 years later. Lots of horror fans, whether or not theyre all in for Halloween, are impressed by the clips and presentation of Michael Myers theyve seen so far. And, similar to superhero convo, even Halloween fans who arent convinced by this latest offering are still saying they have to go to theaters to see it. There are even those suggesting that there should be a rebooted face-off between Myers and other horror favorites, like Jason of the Friday the 13th series.”
Halloween made its initial splash on social last fall when Curtis debuted an image of herself on the famous front porch with Michael Myers lurking. The first trailer launched in June with an eyebrow-raising 23M views in the first eight hours and has clocked north of 160M views to date. Uni lit up word of mouth on Halloween like a bonfire with a world premiere in the Midnight Madness section of TIFF and another screening at Austins Fantastic Fest. Halloweens social media universe across Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube views counts 192.1M, well above the genre pics 103M social media universe count. Curtis is the social media leader with 2M followers. Video materials have flown around the internet at an alarming rate of 96:1, compare that to a horror films average 13:1 viral rate. RelishMix reports that Halloween is also ahead on average daily new Facebook fans with 3.7K, also ahead of the benchmark 3.3K. Hashtags/tags for #Halloweenmovie and @Halloweenmovie are in the the 26-32k range which is average for a horror pic, but add in the unofficial #Halloween hashtag at over 63k per day, and that throws Twitter activity over 100k per day, which is exceptional. Meanwhile, holdover #Venom continues to fly well in the 55-62k hashtags per day this week.
The Curtis slasher will profit greatly given its $15M production cost split evenly between Miramax and Blumhouse (Universal took overseas rights and is handling the pic for a fee): Blumhouses Split off a $9M production, $80M P&A and $278.4M global gross cleared $68M-plus in black ink at the end of the day. Get Out, which cost less at $4.5M, $77M worldwide P&A and $255.4M worldwide box office, earned an estimated $124.8M in profit.
Other notables: Universal/DreamWorks First Man has a second weekend of $8.6M, -46%, 10-day of $30M. Uni was hoping for a second weekend hold in the Bridge of Spies range (-26%). Imax is still busy providing rocket fuel to the Damien Chazelle-directed astronaut drama which underperformed with a $16M opening last weekend.
20th Century Foxs expansion of The Hate U Give from 248 sites to 2,303 is landing in 6th place with $7.7M, and running total by Sunday of $10.9M. Production cost was $23M. Could be stronger, but Fox platformed this movie to cut through the big noise of October in hopes of keeping the George Tillman Jr.-directed movie alive through awards season. 96% RT certified fresh score. Four and a half stars here on PostTrak with an 88% overall positive. Females at 65% turnout love it the most at 93%. African Americans rep 44% of current moviegoers, followed by 29% Caucasian, 16% Hispanic and 9% Asian. Big 74% definite recommend here.
Jonah Hills teenage street skateboard feature Mid90s looks to be earning around $71,3K per theater at four New York and Los Angeles locations, and a total weekend of $285K for the A24 release. 81% certified fresh RT score.
Fox Searchlights Melissa McCarthy dramatic turn as celebrity biographer-turned-literary forger Lee Israel Can You Ever Forgive Me? is eyeing around $27K per theater and a NY/LA opening in five locations of $135K. Awesome 99% certified fresh RT score.
IFCs Paul Dano-directed drama Wildlife starring Carey Mulligan and Jake Gyllenhaal, which world premiered at Sundance and went on to play Cannes Critics week and TIFF is looking at $24K per theater with $96K from four NY/LA theaters. 96% Certified Fresh RT.
Industry estimates for the weekend of Oct. 19-21
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FRIDAY AM UPDATE after Thursday PM EXCLUSIVE: Universal is calling Miramax/Blumhouses Halloween at $7.7 million in Thursday night previews, which began at 7 PM at 3,200 venues — still a fantastic result for a horror pic even though our estimates overshot. Last nights take bests The Nuns $5.4M preview, and its just under the $8M of Paranormal Activity 3s midnight previews.
The funky, front-loaded nature of horror movies –they dont exactly leg out like superhero ones — makes Halloween a tricky one to peg in regards to how high it will go. Already we were hearing that advance ticket sales today are enormous, and thats after last nights show. We also heard presales in certain multiplexes are beating Its sales. Already, Fandango reported that Halloween is the best horror preseller of the year, well ahead of The Nun.
Should Halloween follow a similar path to It and The Nuns gross trajectory — with Thursday repping 25% of Friday, Saturday down 10% and Sunday another 40% — it will be looking at roughly $30.8M today (including previews), $27.7M Saturday and $16.6M Sunday for a $75M domestic opening.
In a Fandango survey of 1,000 responders, 98% are excited to see the return of Jamie Lee Curtis and the original Michael Myers (Nick Castle), 97% are excited that John Carpenter was involved, 89% are looking forward to David Gordon Green and Danny McBride bringing dark humor to the project, 88% are fans of the slasher thriller genre, and 76% have seen most of the films in the Halloween franchise.
Halloweens Thursday is arguably the third best preview for a horror film after Its $13.5M and Paranormal Activity 3.
Remember with It and The Nun, their grosses were goosed by Imax theaters. Those are being relegated this frame to Universal/DreamWorks First Man. In Friday morning estimates as of 6:54 AM, the epic Damien Chazelle-directed Neil Armstrong biopic ended its first week with an estimated $21.4M after a third-place take of $1.09M on Thursday.
In first, winning every weekday this week, is Warner Bros A Star Is Born which earned an estimated $2.7M, down 8% from Wednesday, for a two-week running total of $107.1M. Sonys Venom is second with $2.08M Thursday, down 7% from Wednesday, for $153M through 14 days. The studios family pic Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween earned an estimated $19.1M in Week 1 after a fourth-place Thursday of $699,000, up 17%. Warner Bros Smallfoot made $598K last night, up 28%, for a three-week running total of $59.8M. 20th Century Foxs Bad Times at the El Royale slotted sixth Thursday with $524K, down 13% from Wednesday, for a one-week take of $10M.
PREVIOUS, THURSDAY PM: Universal/Miramax/Blumhouses Halloween is being projected by our industry sources at around $10 million, which arguably is the second-best preview night for a horror pic after New Lines It banked $13.5M from 3,500 theaters on Sept 7, 2017.
Tonights forecast doesnt come from Universal, so theres an asterisk as the final tally could come in higher or lower by the morning. Showtimes started at 7 PM. We heard that the David Gordon Green-directed sequel at one point was tracking at $8M at around 6 PM, then popped to $10M after 9 PM. Still even if Halloween is in the high single digits at $8M-$9M tomorrow morning, thats amazing for a horror movie considering New Lines The Nun hit a Conjuring universe franchise record back on September 6 with $5.4M. Arguably, the next best horror movie to fare well in previews after It was Blumhouses own Paranormal Activity 3, which cleared $8M on October 21, 2011; and that was just from midnight shows.
Where does Halloween land on its opening day and the weekend?
Without a doubt, the film produced by Malek Akkad, Bill Block and Jason Blum is easily headed to its best opening in the franchises 40-year history, beating 2007s Halloween ($26.3M), and its poised to be the biggest opening for Blumhouse, besting Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.5M). The opening also marks a great launch for the new Miramax under CEO Block and chairman Nasser Al-Khelaifi, which co-financed the $15M feature here. True, genre fans are a front-loaded kind of crowd who show up first and then disappear the rest of the weekend, but Halloween is playing like a blockbuster given its multi-generational pull. The drawing power for many is Jamie Lee Curtis reprising her legendary role as Laurie Strode for the first time since 2002s Halloween: Resurrection.
If Halloween follows the gross pattern of It and The Nun, its Thursday will rep 25%-27% of its opening day which would be a $37M-$40M Friday (including previews). Saturday would dip 10%, which would put the second day around $33M-$36M. Sunday would fall roughly 40% from Saturday, making it $19.8M-$21.6M. That puts the entire weekend between $89.8M-$97.6M. Again, thats if Halloween plays like It or The Nun. Critics wont be a problem business-wise for this movie because they love it at 81% Certified Fresh.
Its Thursday night repped 27% of its $50.4M opening day before finaling at $123.4M, while The Nun did 25% of its $22M opening day on Thursday before posting a $53.8M opening. Both movies had the help of Imax. Currently the Imax auditoriums are being used by Universal/DreamWorks The First Man.
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