2nd Update: Here’s a ray of sun for A Wrinkle of Time: The Ava DuVernay-directed film is looking to win Friday with $12M-$14M over Black Panther which will turn in $8M-$9.5M.That’s for sure. We just received a second update and it looks like A Wrinkle in Time should take the weekend with $44M-$45M over Black Panther‘s $41M-$42M. Another set of estimates from a few minutes ago believed the No. 1 one win was too close to call with both looking at $37M to low $40Ms.
Rival studio executives have been buzzing for sometime that a $30M-ish start for A Wrinkle in Time just doesn’t cut it profit-wise in regards to this $100M-plus production, but a $40M-plus start will be fine. Even if Wrinkle comes up short, Disney can take the hit given the amount of successes they’ve had. The studio fully backed and supported a vibrant vision from a passionate female director who has cherished this literary property for some time, and those corporate maneuvers in Hollywood shouldn’t be questioned, rather celebrated and championed. The intent here was to eventize a classic childrens novel with a fanbase that had never been brought to the screen before. It’s a very competitive weekend, and A Wrinkle in Time, like Black Panther, has been sold on its multiculturalism in its ensemble cast. The pic is coming three weeks after that Marvel monolith which is quickly approaching $600M. There’s some cannibalization of audiences here. The hope here for A Wrinkle in Time is that it sleeps all the way to $150m, a 3.5x thanks to spring breaks.
Overperforming is Aviron’s R-rated The Strangers Prey at Night which is looking at this point at a weekend between $10M-$12.5M.
20th Century Fox’s Red Sparrow is looking at $2.5M to $3M in its second Friday, -50% with a second weekend that’s between $8M-$11M. On the high side, pic could reach $34M.
Not so hot: Amazon/STXfilms’ Gringo with an estimated $3.5M per industry estimates and Entertainment Studios’ Hurricane Heist
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1st Update, 8:32AM: If there’s one headline Disney will own this weekend, it’s that they’ll have the No. 1 and No. 2 box office spots with films that star diverse ensemble casts: Marvel’s Black Panther and Ava DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time, which drew $1.3 million from previews Thursday starting at 7 PM.
Tracking has had A Wrinkle in Time in the low-to-high $30 million range over the past four weeks, but there’s a small constituency of analysts who believe the feature adaptation of Madeleine L’Engle’s 1962 Newberry Medal winning sci-fi children’s novel could cross into the $40Ms, which would be a decent start for a production reportedly budgeted at $100M. As has been widely reported, A Wrinkle in Time is the first mega-budget live-action event film to be directed by a woman of color.
Wrinkle in Time has a 43% Rotten Tomatoes score, though that may not necessarily impede its traction among women and young girls, its prime demo. There have been other kids films with platinum RT scores that have floundered at the B.O. (Paddington 2 at 100% certified fresh didn’t create a stampede with $40M, while Peter Rabbit, which will likely hit $100M, did so off a ho-hum 60% fresh RT rating.)
A Wrinkle in Time will be in play at 3,980 locations. Broken down, that’s 2,800 3D locations, 258 IMAX, 407 PLF, and 128 D-Box.
Note that families don’t really come out until tomorrow’s matinees, so we’re likely to see Black Panther win tonight. A Wrinkle in Time‘s preview cash is in between Alice Through the Looking Glass, which made $1.5M ahead of a $34M opening, and Wonder‘s $740K which saw a $28M debut. Wonder, which was based on a much beloved novel, legged out to $132M off 85% fresh reviews and a $20M production cost, while Alice 2 crashed at the B.O. with $77M off a $170M production cost despite earning an A- CinemaScore.
Black Panther, after collecting $4.1M yesterday, is starting its weekend with a domestic total of $520.8M. Many bet it will be No. 1 with $40M-plus in its fourth weekend.
A Wrinkle in Time will hope to hold its own not only against Black Panther stealing crowds away but also The Strangers: Prey at Night from Aviron. Yes, that horror movie. The R-rated pic could eat into an older femme crowd. Strangers 2 tracked between $6M-$10M earlier this week and last night made $610,000. The reported $5M microbudget sequel to the 2008 Bryan Bertino title, which he also co-scripted, follows a family in a secluded mobile home park who are are visited by three masked psychopaths one night. Chaos ensues. Pic has a 38% Rotten score.
There’s another mid-budget guy action pic in the marketplace, a genre that’s been overpopulated with titles like Den of Thieves, The Commuter and Death Wish. It’s Entertainment Studios’ The Hurricane Heist starring True Blood‘s Ryan Kwanten. Pic is expected to earn between $2M-$7M at 2,400 locations. Critics aren’t fans of the pic at 22% Rotten.
Amazon has the Nash Edgerton R-rated pot action comedy Gringo, which is being handled by STXfilms via a distribution deal. Starring Charlize Theron, Joel Edgerton, Thandie Newton, and David Oyelowo, the pic is only expected to clear between $2M-$5.5M million at 2,404. It has 36% Rotten, and that won’t be enough to convince the older Amazon specialty demo to attend.
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