UPDATE, SATURDAY AM: Dumbo doesnt stink like the elephant pen at the zoo, but his estimated $14.8M Friday and $44M isnt a skyrocket in flight either. If this Disney $170M live action adaptation of the classic 1941 feature toon is going to clear $50M for the weekend, Jumbo Jr. is going to have to flap to $22M on Saturday, which is 49% more than Friday, and right now hes likely to land only $18.5M, +25% per industry estimates.
On the bright side, Dumbo roared to an A- CinemaScore, which is the same grade as director Tim Burtons Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland, but with general audiences the pachyderm pic only gets 3 1/2 stars on PostTrak and 4 1/2 stars both with parents and kids under 12. General audiences made up 53% of tonights crowd, parents 16% and kids 32%.
Disney through the power of it vertical integration via radio, theme parks, YouTube portals, ABC and the Disney Channel is always good about letting the world know theyre opening a movie. But they have two types of live-action remakes when it comes to their animation vault: The popular branded, very expensive, glitzy cast and household name director ones like Beauty and the Beast and the smaller, lower budgeted titles like Christopher Robin ($99.2M) and Petes Dragon ($76.2M). The mistake made with Dumbo, despite Burtons beautiful fingerprints, is that the movie should have fell in the latter category. “Who was the audience? How well is the property known? Where was the fun? Why did the trailer not have fun moments? How did they spend ~$300mm+ in aggregate on a non multiquadrant picture?” cried one film finance executive to us about Dumbo.
As I mentioned in the preview, Dumbos hang-up is that hes based on an IP thats 78 years old. The movie is an old fashioned, slow-paced story. While Burton has had circus-themed pics before (i.e. the misfire Big Fish at $122.9M WW, and theres a circus thing going on in Batman Returns), his A game with event titles resides in snappy story lines, colorful absurdist characters and musical numbers. Critics have shackled Dumbo with a 52% Rotten Score. Beauty and the Beast, Maleficent, Alice in Wonderland, and Cinderella all sell the dazzle of the Disney princess universe. Jungle Book is a fun, bouncy, adventure musical with vibrant characters. Aladdin should bode well with its fun trailers, and theres that extra appeal for that Gen X 1990 crowd with one of their favorite stars of the era, The Fresh Prince of Bel Air himself, Will Smith, as the Genie.
However, what does Dumbo sell? Sadness, animal cruelty, loss of parents. Who wants to line up for that? The Dumbo ride at Disneyland has more thrills. The last re-release was in 1976 on the big screen, so if youre close to 50, Dumbo might mean something to you (that said only 13% over 45 showed up). We hear that on social media there wasnt any heat on several of the pics materials, not in the way that Disney pulls off with such pics as the upcoming live action and beloved 90s classic The Lion King (third most watched trailer of all-time at 224.6M) or even the upcoming animated Frozen 2 (at 116.4M).
Of those that attended Dumbo, females under 25 at 31% were the biggest demo, followed by females over 25 (28%), men under 25 (25%) and guys over 25 (16%) in ComScore/PostTrak exits. 57% were Caucasian, 22% Hispanic, 9% Asian, and 8% African American. Girls under 12 at 59% outnumbered boys at 41%. In combined demos those 18-24 were the largest demo at 19% followed by 25-34 at 18%, which means a millennial crowd showed up — just not in the great dollar amount the film required.
Says social media analyst RelishMix, “Disney enthusiasts say they might wait to see what the reviews are before showing up to Dumbo. This contingent is also skeptical that Tim Burton was the right choice to helm the re-imagining. Still other naysayers are asking how many of these remakes are necessary – and in the case of Dumbo, if the effort is taken to make a live-action version. Also, where are the mice and the beloved co-stars of the original animated classic?”
Also, low social media cast/director wattage here with Burton leading the way with 5.1M fans on Facebook and Danny DeVito with 4M on Facebook. “Big stars like Colin Farrell and Eva Green are not on social media, and the younger co-stars have a smaller social reach,” says RelishMix. Beauty and the Beast had the social media wattage of its lead actress Emma Watson, and pop star Ariana Grande with its title song. Dumbo doesnt have those types of social media stars to help with lift-off.
While Jordan Peeles Us doesnt have the jaw-dropping second weekend dip that Get Out did at -15%, the Universal releases weekend 2 decline of $33.6M, -53% is still respectable as the average horror pic drops on average -60% to -65%. African Americans are leading the way in PostTrak exits this weekend at 37%, followed by Caucasian at 32%, Hispanic at 19% and Asian 7%. Close to an even four-quad movie here age-wise which is how a studio likes it Men under 25 (27% who gave the pic its best demo grades at 84% positive), Men over 25 (21%), Females under 25 (25%) and Females over 25 (26%). Ten day total is $128.2M.
Well expound more in the AM, but PureFlixs anti-abortion movie Unplanned despite all the controversy and the fact that the distributor couldnt get cable ad spot time or even Christian radio airtime is shaping up to be their second best opening ever since they handled their own titles theatrically with $6.2M after Gods Not Dead 2 ($7.6M). Four stars on PostTrak, 80% positive and a 65% definite recommend from its audience. Females over 25 at 51% were the biggest draw, followed by Men over 25 (27%), Females under 25 (13%), and Males under 25 (10%). Females like the movie better than guys, 81% to 77% but the younger under 25 crowd enjoyed the movie more than those over that age, 87% to 78%.
RelishMix remarks, “The true notable for Unplanned is the real-life personality Abby Johnson, who is promoting the film with the same vigor as her book and talks over the past several years…Still, social media is challenging when it comes to predictions for faith-based movies, as often seen in the past the audience is not necessarily heavy social users. Also, these films often have awareness built from the ground up via churches and faith based communities who dont necessarily lean on social for spreading the word about the film in question.”
Bleecker Street/ShivHans acquisition of Weinstein Co.s Hotel Mumbai via Lantern in its weekend 2 wide break is making $3.4M in 8th place at 924 venues for a $3.58M ten-day total. 3 1/2 stars and a 48% definite recommend on PostTrak isnt the strongers, but Men under 25, the pics third biggest demo at 20% loved the pic the most at 93% positive. Men over 25 the biggest group at 33% liked it the least at 69%, with females over 25 (28% turnout, 77% positive), and Females under 25 (19% with an 85% positive).
NEONs The Beach Bum is grossing $1.8M for the weekend at 1,015 and reps Oscar winner Matthew McConaugheys lowest opening ever for a wide release. Beach Bum is lower in its estimated 3-day than the actors January disaster Serenity which was shortchanged by Aviron in its P&A, though the movie opened in a wider number of theaters during weekend 1 at 2,561 earning $4.4M. McConaugheys Mud even opened to more money with $2.2M and that was on fewer screens at 363. Prior to Beach Bum, McConaugheys lowest lead actor opening was for Weinstein Cos Gold which debuted to $3.4M. Granted, helmer Harmony Korine is an acquired test and Beach Bum was an indie pic made for a reported $5M. If only PostTrak audiences were actually high when they saw the movie, they may have given this alright, alright grades, but no with a paltry 2 1/2 stars and a low blow definite recommend of 36%. Men under and over 25 came out equally at 31%.
The pic received a jump in its social media from the Snoop Dogg and McConaughey appearance on Kimmel which drew 1.8M views on YouTube. That said, RelishMix notices that “the cast is mixed as to its activation, with McConaughey sharing materials – but big co-stars on social like Snoop and Zac Efron are decidedly quiet. Convo is easily mixed…For those who dont enjoy movies like Pineapple Express, theyre just as confused as McConaughey was hanging with Snoop on set.”
UPDATED, Friday midday: Disneys Dumbo is flying in lower than the $50 million-plus tracking expected with an estimated $46M-$49M weekend off a $15M first day. It is not what we typically expect from the uber-event Disney live-action remakes of its toon vault (meaning, the bigger branded animated classics like Maleficent and Cinderella). Critics have whipped Jumbo Jr. hard at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. though a lot can change for this $170M-budgeted pic (not counting global P&A) by tomorrow with matinees.
Universals Us is looking at $32M, a nice -55% hold, with Friday at $9M sending the Jordan Peele-directed horror pic past $100M today. By Sunday, Us will stand at $126.6M. Get Out ended its domestic run at $176M.
As for Disneys Captain Marvel, hear her roar with a fourth weekend of $20M, off 42%, at 3,985 locations. This would put Ms. Marvel at $353.3M by Sunday.
PureFlixs controversial anti-abortion drama Unplanned is doing better than the low-single digits expected with $6.5M this weekend after an opening day of Read More – Source
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