We know that the Golden Globes will be held Sunday, January 6, and that the show will air on NBC starting at 8 P.M. ET. We know that the charmingly mismatched duo of Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh, both Globe winners, will be hosting the festivities. And we know that Jeff Bridges and Carol Burnett will both be feted with honorary awards.
Other than that, though, anything is possible at this notoriously freewheeling ceremony, which has earned a reputation for left-field choices in both its film and television categories. (Remember all that love for Mozart in the Jungle?) Unpredictable as the show may be, though, Vanity Fairs crack team of experts has taken our best guesses at who will walk away with the nights main categories. Find our picks below—and check back on Sunday to see how well we did.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Bohemian Rhapsody
Though Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman certainly have their ardent boosters, we just dont see the famously theatrical Hollywood Foreign Press Association going for anything but Bradley Coopers lush romantic drama. Though, yes, some could argue A Star Is Born belongs in the musical/comedy category, it still seems to have the most momentum of any of the nominated dramas, thanks to its actor-turned-director pedigree and the presence of one Lady Gaga, whom the H.F.P.A. has already graced with an acting award (for American Horror Story).
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
In a somewhat confusing year that has A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody running as dramas, its hard to say what exactly the H.F.P.A. will make of its musical/comedy options, which effectively fall into two categories: shiny blockbusters, and dramas directed by guys who have made funnier movies in the past. Despite questions about Green Books handling of race, and reports that Mahershala Ali called his characters real-life family to apologize if he had offended them, Peter Farrellys cant-we-all-get-along road movie still looks like the movie to beat—though The Favourite has plenty of Eurocentric edge, and Poppins knows how to please a crowd. And if you really want to live dangerously, consider how much non-Americans stuck covering Hollywood might appreciate Vices gleeful evisceration of a dictatorial Republican running amok in the White House.
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Willem Dafoe, At Eternitys Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Here is where we see the A Star Is Born juggernaut faltering a little. That the H.F.P.A. nominated Bohemian Rhapsody for best picture indicates some strong institutional support for the film, a box-office phenomenon that owes much of its oomph to Rami Maleks strutting imitation of Freddie Mercury. Cooper could easily spoil here, but right now were giving Malek the slimmest of edges. Of course, the H.F.P.A. is notoriously mercurial, so its possible all our best-laid predictions could bite the dust come Sunday.
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Sure, it would be nice to see the Globes give Glenn Close a little push toward her first-ever Oscar—but we think its more likely that the H.F.P.A. will opt for Gagas icon-affirming big-screen debut. The Globes probably cant resist giving Gaga her triumphant moment, especially because her odds of winning an Oscar are a bit steeper. When Gaga won her first Golden Globe, for American Horror Story, she said it was the greatest night of her life. Who would the H.F.P.A. be to deny Gaga a whole new night to remember?
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Remember all the side-splitting laughs you enjoyed while watching Christian Bale seize control of the American government and use it to start a staggeringly misguided war that killed countless innocent people? No? Well, dont overthink it—theyre just the Golden Globes, after all! Unless hell freezes over or the troops come home from Iraq, Bale seems destined to win this award, thanks to his alarmingly convincing transformation into Vice President Dick Cheney. He sneers, he drawls, he puts on weight, and wears a bald cap—whats not to reward? If anyone beats him, itll be the ever-reliable Viggo Mortensen, who ventures way outside type as a race-baiting Italian-American chauffeur from New Jersey.
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
This one feels easy. Constance Wu adds a humble levity and sweet sense of humor to Crazy Rich Asians that makes the movie memorable as well as fun. Charlize Theron is always memorable, but with a script written by Diablo Cody, she can make fantasy and desperation feel relatable. Elsie Fisher is more than just believably awkward in Eighth Grade; she makes an art of it. Emily Blunt reigns over Mary Poppins with an unsurprisingly nimble mix of authority and grace. But Olivia Colman has what feels like the least flattering role in this bunch, one predicated on a powerful womans humiliation before the people leeching off of that power. She also details that humiliation beautifully as the beating heart of The Favourite, and voters will notice this.
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture__
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
A win for anyone but Richard E. Grant feels unlikely, as hes the actor whos gotten the most attention in the supporting-actor categories so far. His tipsy, gregarious, loyal, but not dependable character, Jack Hock, is a love letter to the neighborly legion of men lost the AIDS crisis; Grant fleshes him out with likable wit. Mahershala Ali also has a chance at winning for his turn as the conflicted pianist Dr. Shirley, of Green Book, especially if there turns out to be a greater swell of support for that film. Then again, the last time Ali was up for this award—in 2017 for Moonlight—he lost, shockingly, to Aaron Taylor-Johnsons (literal) dick swinging in Nocturnal Animals. So who even knows!
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Though Regina King didnt get a SAG nomination—thus upsetting the early assumption that she would run the table all season—we still think shes a shoo-in for the Oscar. Its a narrative that started with a handful of critics groups awards at the end of 2018, and will likely continue at the Globes. Theres a chance that Amy Adams could sneak in for her tenacious turn as Lynne Cheney, but were just not sure Vice has enough devoted fans to make that happen; this award looks like Kings to lose.
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
At first glance, it seems impossible for Alfonso Cuarón to win best director, since Roma isnt even nominated in the two best-picture categories—for drama or musical/comedy. But thats only because H.F.P.A. rules prevent a film from being nominated for best picture and best foreign film, a category Roma is near-certain to win. And deservedly so! An art film that brims with emotion, with the scope of a sweeping epic and the intimacy of a secret diary, Roma is the most complete and successful expression of directorial vision that weve seen this year. And neither first-time director Bradley Coopers astonishingly successful remake of A Star Is Born nor Spike Lees irresistibly gonzo exposé of white-nationalist terrorism are likely to outshine Cuaróns masterful accomplishment.
Best Screenplay
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, and Brian Currie, Green Book
While Roma is admired for many reasons, its writing isnt as frequently as cited as its technical prowess or Alfonso Cuaróns overall vision. And maybe voters think that next to the likes of the meta-comical Vice or the witchy bitchiness of The Favourite, Beale Street isnt biting or clever enough. Either way, we have a feeling that Green Book—with its warm story, likable plotting, and actor-friendly characterizations—will win here. “Cant we all just get along?” isnt the most advanced message response to our current political moment, but certainly it has proven to be salient.
Best TV Series, Drama
The Americans
Bodyguard
Homecoming
Killing Eve
Pose
With Sandra Oh onstage hosting the Globes, it might be a little awkward if Killing Eve wins the prize for best drama. But on the other hand, her presence there is an indication of how high the buzz is for BBC Americas series from show-runner Phoebe Waller-Bridge. This is a spy thriller with loads of foreign accents, fancy couture, and droll punch lines in dark alleyways, which makes it an easy favorite for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. That said, dont discount Amazon Studios sway with the H.F.P.A.; that streaming service has nabbed several statues in years past. And with star Julia Roberts as a draw for Homecoming, that drama is essentially tailor-made for a Golden Globe.
Best Limited TV Series or TV Movie
The Alienist
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
Sharp Objects
A Very English Scandal
This ones got to be a close race. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story likely has the most in its favor to woo the Hollywood Foreign Press Association: sumptuous set pieces, movie stars doing accents, pulpy eroticism, and several Emmys already under its belt. But it goes up against stiff competition: Showtimes Escape at Dannemora, featuring a big performance from awards favorite Patricia Arquette, and HBOs Sharp Objects, which is as yet untested in the TV awards circuit because it premiered over the summer. Both feature titanic lead roles; Arquette and Amy Adams were two of our favorite performances of the year. And none of these has the appeal of a British period piece, like Amazon Studios A Very English Scandal. And all that being said, we were surprised The Alienist was even nominated—meaning perhaps theres more to the TNTs limited seriess appeal than meets the eye.
Best Actress, Limited TV Series
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
If ever there were a year for an Amy Adams awards sweep, its 2019. She was excellent as Camille Preaker in HBOs Sharp Objects, and the series was steamy and illicit enough to deliver a bit of the heady excitement that usually draws the Hollywood Foreign Press Associations interest. On top of that, Adams has long been an also-ran Oscar contender, which is enough to put her within the golden light of the H.F.P.A.s glow while still retaining a bit of that ingenue appeal. To win, though, shell have to impress more than awards vet Patricia Arquette, who puts in transformative work in Escape at Dannemora, and the Emmy winner for this category, Regina King; shell also have to triumph over the double-bind that often comes for performers nominated twice in a single year, who can end up splitting the vote and walking away empty-handed.
Best Actress, TV Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaids Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
This is a thrilling matchup, involving two very young streaming services, a movie star, the first Asian Emmy nominee for lead actress in a drama, and several fan favorites in expensive series with entrenched, devoted audiences. Reigning winner Elisabeth Moss is still a performance heavyweight, but the second season of The Handmaids Tale fizzled where it could have popped. But Oh, who will be co-hosting the Globes as well, is riding a wave of critical adulation and individual recognition; as a long-overlooked minority actor in a buzzy, exciting role, the Globes have the opportunity to go where the Emmys didnt. Probable as a win may seem for her, though, we cannot overlook the shadow of screen siren Julia Roberts, whose sojourn to the small screen is exactly the type of role the Globes love to honor.
Best Actor, TV Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Emmy winner Matthew Rhys may have a lock on this category; his win at the more conservative awards shows indicates a broad base of admiration. But hell face competition from newcomers Stephan James and Richard Madden, whose youthful good looks and charisma drove word-of-mouth buzz. James, who also starred in If Beale Street Could Talk, glows with the most obvious ingenue energy; the 25-year-old, who seems to be perpetually wreathed in a winning smile, held his own opposite Julia Roberts in Sam Esmails psychological drama for Amazon Studios. Madden and his Netflix colleague Jason Bateman are likely to have large fan bases, too, given the streaming giants reach. And while Poses Billy Porter ought to be more of a contender, of the five nominees, he seems the least likely to win.
BEST TV SERIES, COMEDY
The Kominsky Method
Barry
The Good Place
Kidding
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Though the H.F.P.A. has a reputation for being unpredictable in all categories, best comedy series has, historically, been a place where this voting bodys penchant for planting its flag on the exciting, new, and possibly obscure has really shone through. (Mozart in the Jungle, anyone?) Though its hard to imagine a show in this rather lackluster TV year that could outshine last years darling The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, both The Kominsky Method and Barry have a shot, considering the wealth of veteran Hollywood royalty like Michael Douglas, Alan Arkin, and Harry Winkler in their casts. If the H.F.P.A. was truly in the mood to shock, it might tap the Jim Carrey vehicle, Kidding. But perhaps the Globes have shocked enough simply by omitting one of the years best comedies, Atlanta, from the nomination list entirely. Still, in all likelihood, this is the category begging for a major upset—so why not bet on a wild card like The Kominsky Method?
BEST ACTOR, TV COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Despite snubbing his show entirely, the H.F.P.A. had the good sense to nominate Donald Glover for his great, multi-hyphenate work on Atlanta. The surprise nomination for Sacha Baron Cohen feels like a cheeky show of support for a series that made both America and Hollywood look somewhat foolish. But when it comes to handing out statues Sunday night, look for either Bill Hader or Michael Douglas to take the Globe home. Despite his years on S.N.L., Haders got the advantage of being a freshest new talent in this particular arena. But Douglas as both a somewhat unpredictable choice and Hollywood royalty seems to have the slight edge here.
BEST ACTRESS, TV COMEDY
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
There would be a satisfying bit of symmetry if Candice Bergen—who first won a Globe for playing Murphy Brown more than two decades ago—were to pick up another statue this many years later for her return appearance in the role. It would be similarly rewarding to see Kristen Bell—who, despite years of reliably bright and entertaining performances in both TV and film has never been nominated before—take home the prize. But most expect that despite the H.F.P.A.s recent history of not giving out repeat prizes in this category, Rachel Brosnahan will take home her second Globe for her titular turn in the sunny, crowd-pleasing Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.
BEST ACTOR, LIMITED TV SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Most experts have this category pegged as a dog fight between Darren Crisss showstopping performance in The Assassination of Gianni Versace and Hugh Grants charmingly louche and venal turn in A Very English Scandal. In Crisss favor is the momentum of his 2018 Emmy win, but working against him is the H.F.P.A.s slight European bias. Criss is the only American nominated here, but recent winners in this category have included across-the-pond imports like Tom Hiddleston, Idris Elba, and Ewan McGregor. For that reason, it would also be folly to discount Golden Globe favorite Benedict Cumberbatch for his bravura showing in Patrick Melrose. Still, between his wild-card status and the extra goodwill built up from his vanity-free performance in Paddington 2, this truly seems like it might be the year for Grant—who has been nominated many times, but hasnt won a Globe since his first stammering, star-making appearance in 1994s Four Weddings and a Funeral.
Best Supporting Actor, TV Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
Sure, Henry Winkler is great in HBOs pitch-black, hitman-in-Hollywood dramedy, Barry. But his performance also ticks off several vital boxes: hes playing a narcissistic, scenery-chewing hack of an acting teacher, and the H.F.P.A. loves big performances and inside baseball almost as much as it loves accents and period costumes. Winkler also has the benefit of looking like the comeback kid; his last Globe win was in 1978. Plus, he won an Emmy for this same role mere months ago. The H.F.P.A. could always do something wild by choosing Alan Arkin (another beloved vet), which might happen if Kominsky turns out to be the Globe spoiler nobody saw coming; Ben Whishaws fluttery but steely performance also seems very Globular. The most likely outcome, though, is another win for Winkler.
Best Supporting Actress, TV Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penélope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaids Tale
A wide wave of Maisel love could well carry Emmy-winner Alex Borstein over the line, especially as she was not even nominated in this category for Maisels first season—and the H.F.P.A. might want to atone for that mistake. Four-time Globe nominee Penélope Cruz is also sitting pretty, having turned in a well-received performance as a bewigged fashion icon in American Crime Story. Then again, its tough to imagine anyone triumphing over Patricia Clarksons charged performance in Sharp Objects as the Southern Gothic mama from hell. Shes a movie star; shes a beloved character actress of a certain age; she has, somehow, never won a Globe before, and was only nominated once previously. If Amy Adams is winning, so is Patricia Clarkson.
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Get Vanity Fairs HWD NewsletterSign up for essential industry and award news from Hollywood.Mike HoganMike Hogan is Vanity Fairs digital director, overseeing VF.com, social media, video, and digital editions.Richard LawsonRichard Lawson is the chief critic for Vanity Fair, reviewing film, television, and theatre. He lives in New York City.Sonia SaraiyaSonia Saraiya is Vanity Fair's television critic. Previously she was at Variety, Salon, and The A.V. Club. She lives in New York.Joanna RobinsonJoanna Robinson is a Hollywood writer covering TV and film for VanityFair.com.Hillary BusisHillary Busis is the Hollywood editor at VanityFair.com. Previously, she was an editor at Mashable and at Entertainment Weekly. She lives in Brooklyn, just like everyone else.
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