3rd Update, Friday PM: Incredibles 2 isnt just a sequel to an animated film, its a sequel to an A+ four-quad movie and its acting like the latter pulling in everyone, largely adults with general audiences accounting for 57% of the audience. Note that parents are only repping 12% of the crowd per PostTrak with 31% kids. Thats why were seeing this superhero-sized opening which is now at $175.3M. That figure alone is 67% of Incredibles $261.4M lifetime domestic gross. With Incredibles 2, Pixar earns its 7th A+ CinemaScore out of 20 full-length theatrical releases.
Given the Marvel event-nature of this film, it really wasnt a good idea for any studio to open any counter-programming against the Pixar sequel, and thats one of the reasons why were seeing dismal results for Sonys Superfly with $5.6M over three days ($7.8M since Wednesday) and a meh opening for New Line/Warner Bros. Tag at an estimated $13.7M. Theres not a lot of air in the marketplace.
The one piece of counter-programming that is working is Warner Bros./Village Roadshows Oceans 8 which teed up quite wonderfully last weekend and will see a second frame thats $20.4M, -51% for a running total of $80M, which by Sunday will be pacing 11% ahead of the franchises highest grosser Oceans Eleven through its firsts 10 days ($72.3M for a final $183.4M, but note that film had the year-end holidays boosting its total). Recently Ocean stars Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett and Mindy Kaling have called for more diversity among film critics in the press, however, they can relish the fact that the sequel is Teflon proof against critics middling 68% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score.
One by one, heres the lowdown on this weekends films:
Any crater Solo: A Star Wars Story left in the marketplace, Incredibles 2 is overfilling. The Pixar creed has always been in step with the Walt Disney philosophy of plus-sing: Continually making every detail and facet of a movie better, and questioning its quality along the way in order to make the final product platinum. For the most part, Pixar has benefited by delaying sequels to truly beloved iconic titles like Toy Story, Finding Nemo, and now Incredibles; careful that they dont water themselves down in the Cars-sense of the word (a franchise that was a guilty pleasure of departing Pixar co-founder John Lasseter). Audiences pulled away from the Cars trilogy, dwindling their ticket spending from $244M stateside on the first 2006 title to shelling out 37% less on the third title last summer with $152.9M. Meanwhile, the lastest installments of Toy Story and Finding Nemo have been the highest for their series with Toy Story 3 earning $415M and Finding Dory seeing a final domestic of $486.2M, +28% over Nemos $380.8M.
In regards to Disneys promotional drumroll, the marketing campaign for Incredibles 2 kicked off last July at Disneys D23 Expo where director Brad Bird and the original cast reunited onstage, showing off concept art and the first footage of Jack-Jack fighting in the backyard with a raccoon. The first trailer launched online last November timed with an ESPN College Game Day integration with Craig T. Nelson, and becoming the biggest animated trailer launch ever with over 113M views in the first 24 hours. The trailer was strategically attached to all the big event pics leading up to its release including Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Avengers: Infinity War, Coco, and Peter Rabbit.
The first 10 minutes of the movie previewed at Disneyland, Walt Disney World, Disney Cruise ships and before exhibitors at CinemaCon. Stoking the vertical integration, Disney declared May 14 “Incredibles Day” (when tickets went on sale) and celebrated in a joint effort with its parks and consumer products divisions. There was a campaign centered around the pics superhero fashion designer Edna Mode which included a multi-page spread in Harpers Bazaar, as well as NYC and Paris Fashion Week outdoor campaigns, a custom fashion-focused piece in the Project Runway finale and custom integrations with Keeping Up with the Kardashians, The Real Housewives of NYC, and Freeforms The Bold Type.
There was an extensive exhibitor marketing program which included custom content featuring Samuel L. Jackson, Sophia Bush, and a “silence your cell phones” PSA from Edna Mode; custom collectible posters, tickets, and specialty products for Imax, Regal, Dolby, Cinemark, Fandango, Alamo Drafthouse, and AMC; a live-stream event into six Imax theatres on June 6 featuring voice talent, director, and producers, plus an Imax double feature of Incredibles 1 & 2 on Wednesday. Promotional partners included ADT, Alaska Airlines (a wrapped plane of course), American Egg Board, Best Western, Bounty, Chrysler, Clorox, Coppertone, Horizon Organic, Juicy Juice, Kleenex, McDonalds (including themed Happy Meals), Sleep Number and Zillow.
And then theres Tag which further underscores the continuing difficulty in launching R-rated modern day live-action comedies that dont star superheros (like Deadpool 2) and arent socially conscious horror titles (like Get Out). If you want to know the direction of where cinematic comedy is going, DP2 and Get Out are great examples of breaking the mold. In all fairness, sources tell me that Tags $13.7M opening in respect to its estimated $28M production cost isnt bad, and it isnt good, its OK. However, theres been too much skepticism by older males in the marketplace over comedies, and an RT score of 56% Rotten isnt going to convince the masses to choose the title at the multiplex. Tags situation is the opposite of New Lines Game Night last February which had great reviews at 83% certified fresh (which propelled the film from a $17M bow to a 4x multiple near $69M stateside) but eclectic marketing which arguably curbed its opening. In regards to Tag, the marketing was more straight forward, and played up the slapstick in the trailers (which anecdotally, received good laughs during an all audience Oceans 8 preview at the AMC Burbank last week). However, despite the based on a true story positioning, the juvenile concept (like Fist Fight) is a low-stakes one for discerning adults to get their heads around. RelishMix noticed that on social media: “For moviegoers, the very premise is what has disinterested them. The idea of a group of grown men playing tag into their adult life had a contingent of social commenters saying, Im out.” Tag might have worked in a pre-Rotten Tomatoes era when all comedies were critic proof at the B.O. Another hurdle for Tag this weekend is that its butting up against Warners own Oceans 8 and theres some cannibalization of the adult audience there, despite the New Line comedy targeting guys. Oceans 8 is pulling in a solid male 25+ quad of 28% to Tags 31%. Meanwhile, women women 25+ are the predominant crowd at Tag at 36% to Oceans 44%. Overall positive for Tag on PostTrak is a low 78% and four stars. However, like Game Night, CinemaScore audiences arent shrugging it tonight give the pic a B+.
Sonys Superfly is splat with a 3-day of $5.6M, and 5-day of $7.8M, the latter number which is even lower than the 3-day $9.9M take of Sonys lackluster femme action pic Proud Mary. No one was asking for a reboot of this Black-ploitation classic, despite the pic being tricked out in its stylish music video vibe. Sony pushed this movie out quick, which is commendable on some level, however, the summer is a fierce live-or-die season for wide releases (duh). Rolling Stones Peter Travers says that the hair in the film upstages the acting with a final verdict of “What a mess”. Superfly gets a lower PostTrak than its Wednesday night B+ CinemaScore with three stars and a 68% overall positive. The film cost a low $16M per Sony (our sources with knowledge of the budget say it was in the low $20Ms). While making ambitious movies at a low cost is a virtue over at Sony, perhaps keeping this one in development a little while longer would have enabled the pic to go a long way; the movie started production back in January.
Vertical Entertainment and MoviePass Ventures have Gotti, which if you remember the producers re-acquired from Lionsgate via an exit clause back in December because they wanted a pure theatrical release, not a day-and-date. Also, there were plans to launch the movie at Cannes, which was a goal fulfilled. MoviePass took a piece of the movie back at CinemaCon for low seven figures. Analysts show the film opening to $1.6M in 12th place at 503 theaters. Im told double that would be a much better start, however, there isnt any big studio P&A behind this pic which boasts 28 executive producers. No word yet on what percent MoviePass is making up of the weekend gross. Knocked one independent studio boss recently on MoviePass push for American Animals and Gotti, “It use to be in distribution, wed all gossip whether a studio was buying tickets to their own movie to goose their opening, but in the case of MoviePass, theres no secret: Theyre literally buying the tickets to their own movie!” Theres only 17 reviews for Gotti, all Rotten, registering a 0% score. Showbiz 411s roasts “Gotti Movie is the $9.99 All You Can East Buffet Version of Goodfellas“.
Props to Focus Features Wont You Be My Neighbor? with a near $10K theater average in weekend 2 after its expansion from 29 to 96 screens for an estimated $924K, +94% for $1.6M. Also, Participant Media/Magnolias RBG doc about Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in its 7th weekend is flying past the $10M mark, truly remarkable for a doc on the big screen in this streaming era which has largely taken over the genre, much like comedies.
CHART COMING…
2nd Update, Friday Midday: Early Friday estimates show Disney/Pixars Incredibles 2 drowning Finding Dorys animated-opening record of $135M for a potential 3-day of $174.7M at 4,410 theaters, a weekend take that would make the sequel the 10th best domestic start ever, above Marvels Iron Man 3 ($174.1M), Warner Bros. Batman v. Superman ($166M), The Dark Knight Rises ($160.9M), and even Lucasfilms Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M). Wow. “Its a great weekend for our industry,” said a rival studio executive today, tipping his hat to the competition.
Incredibles 2 looks to reap between $68M-$69M today, including those $18.5M previews, easily the best opening day of all-time for animated pic, deep-sixing Dorys $54.7M, and even coming in higher than such superhero pics as The Dark Knight ($67.1M), Suicide Squad ($64.8M), and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($50.7M).
Disney already dominated 9 slots on the top domestic openers list, and theyll continue to do so as Incredibles 2 joins Disneys Avengers: Infinity War (No. 1, $257.7M), Star Wars: Force Awakens (No. 2, $248M), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (No. 3, $220M), The Avengers (No. 5, $207.4M), Black Panther (No. 6, $202M), Avengers: Age of Ultron (No. 7, $191.2M), Captain America: Civil War (No. 8, $179M), and Beauty and the Beast (No. 9, $174.75M).
Warner Bros./Village Roadshows Oceans 8 is looking at $6.5M-$6.6M today, for $21.6m at 4,145 locations, -48% for a great 10-day of $81.2M. Thats better than New Lines Tag, which looks to come in with $14M for the weekend at 3,382 theaters, off a $5.3M estimated Friday.
Disneys Solo: A Star Wars Story will file 4th with $9.2M at 3,182, -41% in weekend 4 with a running total by Sunday of $192.9M. 20th Century Foxs Deadpool 2 in 5th looks to make $9.17M, -35% in weekend 5 at 3,212 for a total of $295M.
Sonys Superfly not so super in 6th place with a weekend of $7M, 5-day of $9M, after a $2.3M Friday.
1st Update, Friday 7:50AM: Disney/Pixars Incredibles 2 took off last night with $18.5 million, easily sinking the previous Thursday night record for an animated movie, $9.2M, held by Finding Dory. That Pixar sequel also holds the opening record for an animated title with $135M — $54.7M of that scored on Friday — and Incredibles 2 is now certain to beat that, hitting the high range of its $150M forecast.
But thats not all: Incredibles 2 also beat the preview nights of Disneys live-action Beauty and the Beast ($16.3M), Marvels Spider-Man: Homecoming ($15.4M) and Thor: Ragnarok ($14.5M), and Warner Bros/DCs Justice League ($13M). Indeed, a Thursday night of superhero proportions for director Brad Birds second go-round. A sequel for Incredibles 2 was long overdue and thats the big driver of business for everyone from 3 to 80 (plus its a great movie at 94% certified fresh).
ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak exit polls for Incredibles 2 leaped tall buildings in a single bound with an overall 91% positive score, five stars, 80% definite recommend, with a Thursday night turnout of 30% females -25, 26% female 25+, 25% males -25, and 18% males 25+. The 18-24 demo was the biggest age group to show up at 35%, followed by 25-34 at 22% and then 13-17 at 20%.
“The movie has incredible convo, with fans of the original expressing their excitement for this second installment after a long, 14 year wait,” says RelishMix about the social media sentiment, “Fans, who were just children when the first debuted, are sharing stories of seeing the first one, playing with the toys and other memories. In fact, several are suggesting that new parents leave their kids at home opening weekend so everyone can enjoy without distraction.”
Duly note that the Incredibles 2 Thursday night also includes cash from the pics Wednesday night Imax preview. Fandango already reported that Incredibles 2 is their best advance ticket seller all time for an animated pic.
Incredibles 2 opens day-and-date in about 26% of the international marketplace including Australia, Russia and most of Latin America.
New Line/Warner Bros Tag posted $1.3M in previews last night, besting the Thursday night results of Game Night ($1M, $5.6M Friday, and $17M FSS), Life of the Party ($700K Thursday), Fist Fight ($600K Th) and filing below the Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart R-rated combo Get Hard ($1.8M Thursday, $12.9M F, $33.8M FSS). The R-rated comedy about a group of older men who play a lifelong game of tag is projected to make between $12M-$16M at 3,382 venues. Pic cost a reported $28M before P&A. Rotten Tomatoes is at 61% fresh for Tag.
Sonys Superfly in its second day made $935K at 2,220 theaters in fifth place yesterday, bringing its two-day total to $2.1M. The studio is looking at a $10M-$12M five-day weekend for the blaxploitation reboot by Director X.
Vertical Entertainment and MoviePass Ventures Kevin Connollys Gotti previewed last night at 350 locations earning $105K. The pic expands to 500 locations today. MoviePass has been promoting the pic to its 3M members. The monthly movie ticket subscription service took a piece of the movie for low seven figures back at CinemaCon as exclusively reported by Deadline.
Among regular pics in release, Warner Bros./Village Roadshows Oceans 8 has lifted $59.6M to date after a great midweek with a Thursday No. 1 of $3.28M, -22% from Wednesday.
Disney/Lucasfilms Solo: A Star Wars Story filed $1.37M yesterday, -15% from Wednesday, for $22.8M over seven days, $183.76M to date through week 3.
A24s Hereditary grossed $1.35M, -14% from Wednesday for a first weeks tally of $20.1M.
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