Months of sexual misconduct scandals involving Los Angeles-area lawmakers have already shaken up the 2018 elections by forcing resignations, raising doubts about other accused incumbents and inspiring more women candidates.
But will the #MeToo movement in California politics actually change election outcomes?
The answer is coming June 5 when ballots are counted in primaries for state and congressional offices, including one vacant California Senate seat, two vacant Assembly seats and a handful of districts in which legislators seeking re-election are tainted by investigative findings or unresolved allegations related to sexual misconduct.
Knowledgeable observers say its hard to predict if voters will take a throw-the-bums-out attitude to their polling places, or if elections will be decided by more constant factors.
“The #MeToo movement will help women candidates,” said Alan Clayton, a Democratic political analyst. “But it wont overcome a lack of key endorsements, lack of money, or lack of a strong resume.”
If any candidate stands to be helped, its someone like Vanessa Delgado. The Montebello mayor is one of four women who are among 11 candidates going after Californias 32nd Senate District seat, a position most recently held by Sen. Tony Mendoza.
Mendoza, D-Artesia, resigned in February as colleagues were about to vote on whether to expel him after an investigation found he engaged in unwanted “sexually suggestive” behavior toward six women. But he immediately announced hed run to win back the seat in a special election and a primary for the next full term, both of which are being held on the first Tuesday in June.
“It is a very real opportunity right now,” Delgado said of the possibility of voters rejecting Mendoza and choosing a woman to replace him.
But Delgado said shes afraid Mendoza will end up getting re-elected because people “disgusted” by elected officials misbehavior will be too turned off to vote. She also could be hurt by voter confusion over the fact that three leading candidates are Democratic Latinas with names starting in V — Delgado, Montebello City Councilwoman Vivian Romero and Rio Hondo College Board Vice President Vicky Santana. The race also features Republican businesswoman Rita Topalian, Democratic former Assemblyman Rudy Bermudez and Democratic Pico Rivera City Councilman Bob Archuleta.
“For a woman and a mother to a 15-year-old [daughter], its challenging to think that residents would look past some of the substantiated allegations,” Delgado said. “But, ultimately, its (voters) choice of who they think would be a good leader for the area. I dont discount the possibility of (Mendoza) getting re-elected.”
The Mendoza contest is only the most curious among several June primaries potentially affected by the series of scandals that have hit California government since last fall, when the sexual misconduct charges against Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein drew attention to harassment in many industries, usually by powerful men against women employees. The scandals have mostly involved Democrats representing parts of L.A. County.
• Voters in heavily Democratic San Fernando Valley state Assembly Districts 39 and 45 will choose replacements for Raul Bocanegra and Matt Dababneh, who resigned late last year after being accused by multiple women of harassment. Democrat Luz Rivas faces Republican Ricardo Benitez in a special-election runoff to replace Bocanegra, and both are among six names on the primary ballot for the next full two-year term. Democrat Jesse Gabriel faces 19-year-old Republican Justin Clark in the special-election runoff to replace Dababneh, and theyre two of seven on the ballot for the full term.
• Several state legislators seek re-election under clouds of sexual-misconduct: Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia, D-South Gate, who was cleared of groping allegations but was stripped of committee assignments after investigators found she used “vulgar language.” Sen. Bob Hertzberg, D-Van Nuys, who was formally reprimanded by the Senate Rules Committee after an investigation found his trademark hugs made women uncomfortable. And Assemblyman Dante Acosta, R-Santa Clarita, who has denied a 2016 allegation that before he held office he propositioned a female political consultant during a work trip.
• Congressman Tony Cardenas, D-Panorama City, is up for re-election while facing a lawsuit claiming he sexually assaulted a 16-year-old girl in 2007. The allegation, which Cardenas vehemently denies, is outside the normal description of sexual harassment, but speakers at a May 21 demonstration calling for the third-term representative to resign suggested comparisons.
Analysts say the sexual misconduct scandals — as well as pushback against President Trumps policies and anger about Hillary Clintons election defeat — could make this a political Year of the Woman. They point to 1992, when the election of four women to the U.S. Senate was attributed to backlash against Clarence Thomas confirmation to the Supreme Court despite harassment allegations.
Women certainly are running for office more in 2018. In data maintained by Rutgers Universitys Center for American Women and Politics, the number of women filing to run for the U.S. House of Representatives (399) and state governorships (47) already have broken records, and the record for the U.S. Senate could yet be broken. Figures for state legislatures are less complete.
The trend for women candidates is upward in Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. A Southern California News Group tally found women comprise 25.9 percent of House candidates in 2018 (up from 17.7 percent in 2016) and 34.1 percent of Assembly candidates (up from 28.4); women make up 36.8 percent of candidates for the state Senate, same as the last time these districts held elections in 2014.
Assembly special-election victories last fall by Wendy Carrillo, D-Los Angeles, in the district formerly represented by now-Rep. Jimmy Gomez, and in April by Sydney Kamlager-Dove, D-Los Angeles, replacing Sebastian Ridley-Thomas, have raised the number of women in the California Legislature to 23 percent. That ranks 32nd in the nation. (The United States ranks 104th from the top in the percentage of female representation in government, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union.)
“Im very excited to see where we are at the end of June 5th, because we are still seeing direct results of the Me Too movement,” said Valerie McGinty, founder and president of Fund Her, an organization that raises money to elect progressive women to California state offices.
McGinty said if Mendoza finishes first or second in the primary and advances to the Nov. 6 general election despite his scandal, it might be because hes the best-known candidate and benefits from low voter turnout and voter knowledge.
Tony Quinn, a Republican political consultant and senior editor of the California Target Book, said if voters dont punish Mendoza, there could be another reason.
“It would say the publics not that concerned [about #MeToo scandals],” Quinn said. “And Im not sure they are that concerned. We havent had a case come up yet.”
Delgado pointed out that many voters did support Donald Trump for president despite his bragging about sexual misconduct.
Renee Van Vechten, a University of Redlands political science professor, said its hard to speculate but one thing is certain: If the #MeToo movement affects any ballot box anywhere, it will be in California. Although Democrats have drawn most of the accusations in the Democrat-dominated state, Van Vechten said the issue seems to resonate more with Democratic voters and more women candidates are Democrats.
“Women are angry and indignant and are channeling that energy into running for office,” Van Vechten said.
What difference that makes, voters will say in a week.
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