When folks complain about Californias sub-par housing development and other economic challenges — and the purported drag created for the states business climate — theyre often using the wrong scales.
Thats because overall national growth since the Great Recession is essentially California plus Texas and Florida — then everybody else. This trio contains the recoverys heavyweight stars with post-2010 performances that have outshined the rest of the pack.
I came to this conclusion after plugging state-by-state data on jobs, housing, and population into my trusty spreadsheet. If youve got economic complaints, there are 47 other states and the District of Columbia to pick on first before getting to the “Big 3” — California, Texas and Florida.
Start with people[hhmc]
The Big 3s population (California, Texas and Florida) grew 9.1 percent since 2010 vs. 3.9 percent for the rest of the nation. (Photos compiled from the public domain)
Yes, the Big 3 combined are the most-populous states. Theyre home to 88.8 million residents or 27 percent of the U.S. population.
In the past seven years, the Big 3 added 7.4 million people, representing a stunning 45 percent of all U.S. population growth. Yes. Three states. Almost half.
Or, look at the dominance this way: Big 3 population grew 9.1 percent since 2010 vs. 3.9 percent for the rest of the nation. (FYI: California alone grew by 5.9 percent! Not much of an “exodus” of residents.)
Ponder opportunity[hhmc]
The Big 3 had 32.3 million jobs last year, 26 percent of the nations employment. Thats up 5.7 million jobs in seven years, or 35 percent of all U.S. hiring in the period.
Again, its not just about huge states and huge scale. Hiring among Big 3 bosses since 2010 equaled growth of 21.4 percent. The rest of the nation? Just 13.2 percent. (California had 2.5 million hires — best in the U.S. — and 21 percent job-growth in an allegedly anti-business climate!)
Oh, and wages? Workers in the Big 3 saw paychecks 22 percent larger since 2010 vs. 18 percent elsewhere. California jobs paid 25 percent more post-recession, fourth-biggest raises among all states.
Then theres housing[hhmc]
California-Texas-Florida have 34.6 million housing units or 25 percent of the nations stock. Thats up 1.9 million units since the recession or 34 percent of all new U.S. housing.
Again, these three giant states outhustled the competition with housing unit growth of 5.7 percent since 2010 vs. 3.7 percent for the 47 other states and D.C.
By this residential yardstick, California was a laggard. A tiny one. Its 3.6 percent housing growth was a nose-length behind the rest of the pack.
Still, lethargic residential development means Californias housing is more crowded, with the nations second-highest people-per-unit ratio. But half the states have seen similar trends since 2010 including Florida and Texas. BTW: Texas has the nations fourth-most crowded homes.
Dont get me wrong[hhmc]
California can do a better job solving its economic challenges. But failing to meet somewhat unexpected and significant growth isnt a worst-case scenario.
Please recall life in 2010, amid the economic rubble left by that ugly downturn. It was an era when many folks feared California could not recover.
So, take a deep breath. Smile when you wonder how the state will meet various economic imbalances created by a dream-like business rebound thats essentially outpaced all U.S. places that werent Texas or Florida.
