We say it every year: the Golden Globe awards just arent all that reliable as Oscar predictors. The voting body that gives out these film (and television) prizes is comprised of just 90-something foreign journalists—nothing like the thousands of industry people who make up the Academy. Still, we return to the confusing well of the Golden Globes every year, to try to make sense of the season before the Oscar nominations are announced and were really off to the races. So, now that the peculiar and frustrating 2019 Globes ceremony has come and gone, lets take a look at a few categories whose profiles have blurred or snapped into focus.
Glenn Is a Bit More Than Close
Though shes been sort of haunting the best-actress race since this summer as a distant possibility, Glenn Close is suddenly an established front-runner after winning best actress in a drama on Sunday night. Whats more, she gave a supremely effective speech about the film she won for, The Wife, and its representation of a woman finally speaking her piece after a lifetime in a lesser mans shadow. Closes emotional outpouring seemed to connect with the glitterati at the Beverly Hilton—many of whom are Academy voters.
The other best-actress winner on Sunday night—in the musical-or-comedy category—was The Favourites Olivia Colman, a beloved television actress who could pose a threat to Close come Oscar time. But Close has a much stronger narrative than Colman, as a seasoned veteran whos been nominated many times, but never won throughout her four-decade career. Closes real strongest competition would have seemed to be Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born, because who doesnt love a singer-turned-impassioned, self-referencing actress? A Star Is Born was run as a drama at the Globes, though, meaning Gaga lost out on a likely win in the musical/comedy category—and now shes down a victory speech to both Close and Colman. (Sure, she won for best song on Sunday night, but she had to cede speech time to Mark Ronson.) That could be a fatal error for the Gaga campaign, as all eyes are now on Close to finally right a famous Oscar wrong.
A Star Is Bust?
Gagas film had a disappointing evening at the Globes. Here is a film—big, sweeping, star-studded—that seemed tailor-made for H.F.P.A. attention. Yet it came up short, badly losing to another music movie, Bohemian Rhapsody, in two crucial categories. It seems like it may be a tough haul for Star Is Borns writer-director-star, Bradley Cooper, to get onto the Oscar stage at all at this point. Which is a surprising position for this rapturously reviewed, fan-memed-into-infinity film to find itself in.
The lead actors who did win at the Globes—Christian Bale for Vice and Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody—both starred in movies that were dinged by some (but not all) critics, and yet may be the ones duking it out come February, with Cooper in a distant third. The Globes are weird, and A Star Is Borns stumble could just be an anomaly in an otherwise ordained Oscar trajectory. But the films chances are looking much more grim than we expected them to at this point—Coopers in particular. That said, its probably still a shoo-in for best song.
Long Live King
Sure, Regina King curiously did not score a Screen Actors Guild Award nomination for her lauded supporting turn in If Beale Street Could Talk. But she did win a supporting-actress trophy at the Globes, which gave her a nice momentum boost toward what we still think is a safe-bet win at the Oscars. Her speech at the Globes was memorable for Kings pledge to produce 50 percent female-staffed productions going forward, and was nice recognition for a veteran television actress who has only acted in three films in the last 10 years. The industry just likes Regina King, for good reason, and it seems almost a given that the Academy will hand her an Oscar as recognition for her enduring talent—and as a symbolic victory for the rest of Beale Street, which faces much steeper odds in other categories it might be nominated for.
Over on the supporting-actor side, things are a bit more muddled. Mahershala Ali took home the Globe for his mannered but endearing performance in Green Book, a film that overcame, or skirted around, a swell of controversy to win three big awards on Sunday night. (It also got best screenplay and best musical or comedy.) Ali will have the added P.R. oomph of his starring role in True Detective Season 3, which will be airing at the time of Oscar voting. But hes perhaps somewhat hampered by the fact that he won an Oscar in this category just two years ago. Then again, that may not be that much of a hindrance as one would think—not when you consider that Christoph Waltz won supporting-actor trophies in both 2010 and 2013.
What this means for one-time front-runner Sam Elliott (from A Star Is Born) or critics darling Richard E. Grant (from Can You Ever Forgive Me?) is hard to say. Elliott didnt even get a nomination at the Globes, so he didnt exactly lose on Sunday night. He just . . . wasnt there. We think hes still likely to land an Oscar nod, but with A Star Is Borns gleam a bit tarnished by the Globes, theres a much wider margin for error. Grant, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? as a whole, increasingly seem like nomination magnets that will yield very few, if any, actual wins. All of a sudden, this is Alis to lose.
The Roma Empire
Because of a weird H.F.P.A. rule, Alfonso Cuaróns Roma (and, yes, Netflixs Roma) could only be nominated in the foreign-language category, where it won. Cuarón won too, solidifying the sense that hes the one to beat for best director at the Oscars.
Beyond Cuarón, could the film become not only the first Spanish-language film to land a best-picture nomination, but the first foreign-language film to win ever? Theres an increasingly decent chance this could happen, especially with movies like Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody taking up the most best-picture oxygen at the Globes. Those two dont seem like especially strong competition at the Oscars, where the voting body is at least a little hipper to controversy—these days, at least. So maybe Roma could benefit from an uncertain field to make history.
We have a developing theory that, because of the oddities of the Academys vote-tallying process, an industry juggernaut like Black Panther—both box-office smash and cultural watershed—could end up nabbing victory off of high positioning on a vast swath of members ballots. Maybe its not No. 1 on all of them, but with the new voting system, No. 2 can count for a lot. And in a year as scattered and conflicted as 2018, maybe a consensus superhero flick enshrined in a righteous social message would be just the right winner.
Get Vanity Fairs HWD NewsletterSign up for essential industry and award news from Hollywood.Richard LawsonRichard Lawson is the chief critic for Vanity Fair, reviewing film, television, and theatre. He lives in New York City.
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